The Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, a group composed of natural and social science researchers, announced a study that “shows” that a solar minimum will not slow global warming. The study is an attempt at a pre-emptive strike. The sun goes into a cooler period and bingo – they rush to add to the endless repetitions of predictions of doom. It’s what they do, and why they exist – to advocate for global warming.
The entire study depends on the assumption that the IPCC climate models are comprehensive and correct in their predictions of twenty-first century climate change. These models include only the possible causes they know about and are capable of modelling, with all of their weightings of climate forcing tuned to enable reasonable hind-casting, applied to a warming world. When the models approximately predict the global temperature (they are very approximate, and then only while the earth is warming) the climate change scientists conclude that they have proved their estimate of the climate forcing due to man-made CO2, and that their forecasts of temperature rises to come in the twenty-first century must therefore be correct. They call this modelling technique “optimal detection”. That is the technique that Ptolemy used in his geocentric model of the universe, which made very accurate predictions of the motions of the moon, planets and stars. It took more than a thousand years for later scientists to discover the truth, That is understandable – the relative predictive accuracy of Ptolemy’s model left little reason to suppose that it might be wrong. So until Copernicus, Galileo and Kepler, astronomers fully accepted the geocentric model.
Similarly, the Potsdam people take AGW and the IPCC-sponsored models as fact. The very notion that the earth cools and warms in cycles, and that in inter-glacial periods like the present, there are mini-cycles of warm periods between little ice-ages, is dismissed as unscientific wishful thinking. It is nothing of the kind. It’s simple observation. And within the last two thousand years, we have written history to draw upon. Written history that documents the Roman Warming and the Medieval Warm Period. The IPCC claim that the recent warming is unprecedented is false. So are the models.
There has been a fifteen-year hiatus in the warming, against the model predictions. Even Phil Jones of the CRU agrees that there has been no statistically significant warming since 1995. And in spite of the present warmth, all indications are that the PDO is now turning negative, and that in five-to-ten years the AMO will also turn negative. The earth is in for 20 – 30 years of cooling, while CO2 continues to rise, fed by the economic growth in China and India. The IPCC models did not predict the flat temperature since 1995, and they do not predict the forthcoming cooling.
Greenhouse gases did not cause the twentieth-century warming, or the earlier MWP and still earlier Roman warming. When cooling sets in, it will not be because greenhouse gases are reduced, or because we are saved by a quiescent sun. It will be a result of the natural cycles.
Discovery News Article http://news.discovery.com/space/the-sun-cant-save-us-from-global-warming.html
Potsdam Press Release: http://www.pik-potsdam.de/news/press-releases/weakening-sun-would-hardly-slow-global-warming