Tag Archives: Phil Jones

Potsdam Institute – Professional Advocates

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The Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, a group composed of natural and social science researchers, announced a study that “shows” that a solar minimum will not slow global warming.  The study is an attempt at a pre-emptive strike.  The sun goes into a cooler period and bingo – they rush to add to the endless repetitions of predictions of doom.  It’s what they do, and why they exist – to advocate for global warming.

The entire study depends on the assumption that the IPCC climate models are comprehensive and correct in their predictions of twenty-first century climate change.  These models include only the possible causes they know about and are capable of modelling, with all of their weightings of climate forcing tuned to enable reasonable hind-casting, applied to a warming world.  When the models approximately predict the global temperature (they are very approximate, and then only while the earth is warming) the climate change scientists conclude that they have proved their estimate of the climate forcing due to man-made CO2, and that their forecasts of temperature rises to come in the twenty-first century must therefore be correct.  They call this modelling technique “optimal detection”.  That is the technique that Ptolemy used in his geocentric model of the universe, which made very accurate predictions of the motions of the moon, planets and stars.  It took more than a thousand years for later scientists to discover the truth,  That is understandable – the relative predictive accuracy of Ptolemy’s model left little reason to suppose that it might be wrong.  So until Copernicus, Galileo and Kepler, astronomers fully accepted the geocentric model.

Similarly, the Potsdam people take AGW and the IPCC-sponsored models as fact.  The very notion that the earth cools and warms in cycles, and that in inter-glacial periods like the present, there are mini-cycles of warm periods between little ice-ages, is dismissed as unscientific wishful thinking.  It is nothing of the kind.  It’s simple observation.  And within the last two thousand years, we have written history to draw upon.  Written history that documents the Roman Warming and the Medieval Warm Period.  The IPCC claim that the recent warming is unprecedented is false.  So are the models.

There has been a fifteen-year hiatus in the warming, against the model predictions.  Even Phil Jones of the CRU agrees that there has been no statistically significant warming since 1995.  And in spite of the present warmth, all indications are that the PDO is now turning negative, and that in five-to-ten years the AMO will also turn negative.  The earth is in for 20 – 30 years of cooling, while CO2 continues to rise, fed by the economic growth in China and India.  The IPCC models did not predict the flat temperature since 1995, and they do not predict the forthcoming cooling.

Greenhouse gases did not cause the twentieth-century warming, or the earlier MWP and still earlier Roman warming.  When cooling sets in, it will not be because greenhouse gases are reduced, or because we are saved by a quiescent sun.  It will be a result of the natural cycles.

Reference:

Discovery News Article    http://news.discovery.com/space/the-sun-cant-save-us-from-global-warming.html

Potsdam Press Release:   http://www.pik-potsdam.de/news/press-releases/weakening-sun-would-hardly-slow-global-warming

Red Herrings in the Enquiry Fishbowl

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In the wake of “”Climategate”, a British House of Commons panel has held an enquiry into the CRU unit.  Right there before the eyes of the world, they heard what Dr Phil Jones had to say:

  • “I have obviously written some very awful e-mails.”
  • “I don’t think anything in those e-mails supports any view that I’m trying to, or CRU has been trying to, pervert the peer review process in any way.”
  • CRU’s practice, he said, was to release “gridded data” (raw information that had been processed for analysis).
  • CRU withheld raw data in part because “most scientists don’t want to deal with raw station data, they want to deal with the derived product.”

Jones is the man at the very centre of Climategate – the man whose emails caused the fuss.  The man who sent an email urging all other associated climate scientists to destroy their data.  The man who, in an email to McIntyre, asked why he should provide data, when McIntyre would try to find something wrong with it.  The man who withheld data from McIntyre on the grounds of confidentiality while at the same time supplying the requested data to a scientist who supports AGW.

After his refreshing honesty in the interview with the BBC’s environment analyst Roger Harrabin, I felt some sympathy for Dr Jones, and said so, in an earlier blog entry.  But Jones has now lost that sympathy.  His answers at the parliamentary enquiry show that he has reverted to obfuscation.  Destroying data perverts the peer review process because it prevents other scientists from testing scientific conclusions. – Jones knows that.  Withholding raw data when it is requested by another scientists cannot be justified on the grounds that most others ask for the derived product –  Jones knows that.  All scientists, when reviewing the work of other scientists, try to find something wrong with it – that’s the scientific method, and Jones knows that, too.

But Jones was not the only witness at the enquiry to apply spin.

UK chief scientific adviser John Beddington said: “I think the general issue that global warming is happening and that it is induced by human activities is also correct.  I think this is unchallenged.”

Julia Slingo, head of the Met Office, said: “We know that (climate change) is unequivocal and that as the IPCC report said, over 90 percent, it’s very likely due to human activities.”  She said that the uncertainty is in projections of future warming, not in the cause.  She at least is right about the uncertainty of the projections.

The cause also is uncertain.  That climate change is caused by human activities is certainly challenged by scientists – by Lindzen, Watts, McIntyre, Woon, and others.  The data gathered so far do not show with any degree of certainty that human activities cause global warming, or that the warming is catastrophic.  We do not know that human activities cause global warming – that is no more than theory.

The parliamentary enquiry and more importantly, Joe Public the voter represented by parliament, deserve rather more than spin and red herrings.  Science itself demands more than that.

References:

NY Times Article on UK Enquiry: http://www.nytimes.com/cwire/2010/03/02/02climatewire-climategate-scientist-admits-awful-e-mails-b-66224.html?pagewanted=1

BBC Interview with Phil Jones: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/8511670.stm

Jim Hansen Lecturing about Cold Winters

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Jim Hansen of GISS has put out “An Essay on Regional Cold Anomalies within Near‐Record Global Temperature”.  (Here it is)

Hansen appears to be attempting to confuse the issues here, by ascribing wrong motives to skeptics and telling them what they already know.  Here are my major grumps about some of the salient points of his essay:

“Scientists reporting global warming are under attack for a supposed conspiracy”.  Maybe from the politically motivated, Jim, but not from skeptics.  No need for conspiracy theories when the science is compromised by the funding model.  If one pays a piper and wants to hear an Irish jig, will the piper play Mozart’s “Magic Flute”?  No, the piper will play a jig.  He has to eat.  So does everyone else, including scientists.  Including you, Jim Hansen.  Scientists depending on funding will tailor their research to support whatever the funder is paying for.  The moment they become advocates they compromise their objectivity.  Every piece of AGW-funded climate research I have seen quoted in climate blogs assesses impacts in the most extreme terms and couches the conclusions in terms of calls for urgent action to avoid disaster.  Funny that.

“Regional cold snaps are expected”. And your point, Jim Hansen, is what, exactly?  Skeptics already know that – we are not ignorant.  It’s not the cold winter that makes us skeptical of global warming.  It’s the fact that you claim that the rise in temperature since the 19th century is due to anthropogenic causes, but offer nothing but a model-based argument from ignorance as scientific proof.  It’s the exaggeration of the magnitude of that rise and the clumsy attempts to preserve the illusory hockey-stick.  It’s your insistence that the rise has continued unabated through the first decade of the 21st century (even Phil Jones has denied that)!  It’s the incessant cries of “wolf” that you issue in every “study” and every possible forum.  Cries which more and more are being shown to be bogus – especially those from the definitive IPCC 2007 report.

Skeptics display “honest, wishful thinking that climate change is not really happening.” Wrong again, Jim.  Skeptics know full well that climate change is happening, that the temperature of the earth has risen since the 19th century and may even rise further.  What they are skeptical about is your version of why this is so, and your insistence that the warming is disastrous.

“Our data show that 2009 was tied for the second warmest year in the 130 years of near‐global instrumental measurements”Your data as homogenised by whom, Jim?  UAH satellite data contradicts it.  Surprisingly, so does the revised GISS dataset, which now has 1934 as the warmest year!

“If we look back a century, we find cold anomalies that dwarf current ones.  Figure 1 shows photos of people walking on Niagara Falls in 1911.  Such an extreme cold snap is unimaginable today.” Thanks for the great photos,  Jim.   Now, we emerged from the Little Ice Age in the nineteenth century and the earth has unsurprisingly warmed up since then, so I suppose you are confident Niagara won’t freeze again any time soon.  But remember your supercilious “Regional cold snaps are expected”?  Careful – you may again be as embarrassed as you have obviously been by this winter.  A winter of a harshness which the meteorologists who oppose your agenda predicted last year.  And your people failed to predict – in fact, they predicted the opposite.

Still, I suppose if Niagara freezes over or the Mississippi freezes all the way to the Gulf, you will once again talk about the regional cold snaps we already know about.

Reference:

Hansen’s Essay (It has great pictures of Niagara Falls): http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/2010/20100127_TemperatureFinal.pdf